Some theories on WHY the war was started in Wamena: Analyses by the Meeting of The Penis Gourds People's Assembly Council (Port Numbay, October 8, 2000, CEB Reporting from Port Numbay.)

Today, October 8, 2000 at 15:00 to 20:00 (Papua Time),  the Working Team of The Penis Gourds People's Assembly Council (Demmak) called for a meeting of its members in Port Numbay. The meeting was held to find out the roots or causes of the war in Wamena. (It is the culture of Koteka or Penis Gourds People to find out causes before they come out fighting their enemies. It was held to investigate whether or not it is militarily and politically correct to act against the murder in Wamena this week) Below is the outcome of the meeting.

The meeting came out with some theories that might caused the war.

Theory One: Megawati, the Indonesian vice president,  instructed the Army and Police Commanders to take repressive measures on the independence movement in West Papua. In various occasions, she stated her concern and strong support to the military and police and put pressure on Mr. Abdurrahman Wahid  to take repressive actions. Mr. Wahid have been insisting on the name of Democracy and Human Rights, but he is getting a lot of criticism lately and now he cannot do much all over Indonesia. The Indonesian army and police are supporting Ms Megawati, as they  did to  Mr. Suharto. Historically, Megawati's father, Sukarno was the president when West Papua was annexed into Indonesia by military force. Apparently, his daughter does not want to loose her face and fight against what her father did in the past. Megawati put great pressure on Wahid to reconsider Mr. Wahid's policy on West Papua. There were some efforts to take over the Presidential office, in co-operation with the military and police. After the appointment of a new Police Supreme Commander in Jakarta, Ms Megawati may give instruction to this new Commander to act repressively against Flag Raising and independence movement in West Papua. If human rights are violated, then people will point to Mr. Wahid anyway. She does not care about humanity and civilisation, what she cares is what her father has done and dreamed about: To promote Greater Indonesia, from Acheh to Samarai (PNG), even Austalia and Malaysia. The meeting concluded, "She is wrong to act like her father and to support what her father did some 40 years ago, in the era of Old Order. We are now in reformation era and we must forget the past mistakes, even committed by former presidents." The meeting condemned Ms Megawati for her position and blamed her as "A new regime to replace Suharto." 

Theory Two: President Aburrahman Wahid himself ordered the Police Commander in Chief to take this action. Mr. Wahid came to West Papua on December 31, 1999 and agreed to hoist the Papuan Flag. He is apparently reluctant to publicly give instruction to lower down the Papuan Flag. If this is the case, then Mr. Wahid is not The Father of Democracy in Indonesia. This does not indicate as a good leader for the country. A President that allows the flag to be hoisted should take the risk from either sides and openly order the police to act. If Mr. Wahid did order the Police "under the table" (or in closed-door), then the Presidium Council of Papua should go to Jakarta and meet Mr. Wahid for clarification. The meeting said, "We want Mr. Wahid to come and tell us from his mouth to lower down the flag as he did to raise the flag." According to Koteka culture, a person that causes troubles to other people should take the risk to pay the risks.

Theory Three: The internal conflict among members of the Papua Panel (20 members) with the members of Presidium Council of Papua who come from Koteka Community caused the deaths of innocent civilians. Indonesia started its politics in addressing the aspiration for independence in Baliem valleys by dividing up members of the Panel and the Council, using Machiavellians' defive et impera formulae. The meeting called for the members of Panel and Presidium Council who are based in Baliem valleys to have meetings for consolidation to unite them so that they can focus on one issue only: Independence, not on their personal differences and ambitions with their micro-politics (the interests of each group).

Theory Four a): Mr. Suripaty, who is originally an Ambonese, is trying to steer up the situation in West Papua in general, starting from Wamena, where people can react very strongly to start the violence. As a person from the troubled area of Ambon, he might be in a position with anger and frustration that his county is in trouble. He might think, his country is struggling for independence but Indonesia is killing more people there, not in West Papua. He would like to start the war here so that Indonesia also kill the Papuans. 

Theory Four b): Also religiously, West Papuans are Christians in majority. The war between Christians and Moslems in Molucas has created hatred between believers of these two religions. There was also a jihad war in Molucas. Many members of the Jihad troops are now deployed to West Papua, to steer up another jihad war here. Since the establishment of the ICMI (Islamic organisation of the Indonesian scholars, firstly headed by Mr. Habibiem the former Indonesian president that allowed a democratic self-determination for East Timor), ICMI has plans to minimise the number of Christians in Indonesia. They burnt churches in Java, Borneo and Molucas. It has plans to build massive mosques and sponsor students from West Papua and other Christian majority provinces and get them to become Moslems. There is fear that this first Moslem country in the world will remain history in the coming decades. They do not want to loose their face. Mr. Suripaty is aware of these policies, and probably he supports the plans as well. He is not happy that this majority-Christian province live in peace and harmony with each other.

Finally, the meeting agreed to meet the Chairman of the Papua Presidium Council and discuss with him these theories and urge him to make clear and strong statement on the plan to lower down the Papuan flag, the symbol of identity and integrity of both Melanesians and Austronesians in West Papua.