Tempo Magazine
Column NO. 37/XXIX/13 - 19 November, 2000
Excessive Suspicion
Harold Crouch *)

Once again, a visit from Indonesia=92s president to Australia has been delayed. The last time an Indonesian president visited Australia was almost 30 years ago, during the 1970s. In the same
time span, Australia's prime minister has visited Indonesia dozens of times. One of the possible reasons is Australia's geographical location. If the Australian prime minister visits a foreign country, it is easy for him to stop by Jakarta. In contrast, it is not so easy for Indonesia=92s president to stop by Australia on a
trip to a foreign country, unless he is visiting New Zealand.

Apart from the geographical factor, there also exists a political element. Perhaps President Abdurrahman Wahid does not personally hit it off with Australia's prime minister, John Howard. However, his personal relationship with other Australian figures seems amicable enough. Before being elected president, Abdurrahman Wahid often visited Australia to attend seminars and conferences, as well as meeting up with friends. Compared to previous Indonesian presidents, he is the most knowledgeable on Australia.

Nevertheless, during Abdurrahman's presidential term, the Indonesian-Australian relationship has declined. The main factor behind this is the East-Timor issue. Many Indonesians blame Australia because Prime Minister Howard suggested that a referendum should be held in East Timor, five to 10 years after autonomy had taken place. I do not exactly understand why Indonesia blames Howard, because former president Habibie rejected his suggestion. In fact, Habibie decided to hold the referendum in 1999.

Many people believed last year that Australia was planning to invade East Timor. However, if we look at the proportion of armed forces possessed by Australia and Indonesia, it is clear that an invasion would have been impossible. Indonesia has approximately 230,000 soldiers, whereas Australia has only 23,000. In guarding the People=92s Consultative Assembly (MPR) sessions during the Suharto period alone, Indonesia mobilized 25,000 troops, more than Australia's total number of soldiers. Furthermore, from Australia's 23,000, only 5,000 troops can be mobilized in a short time. In contrast, Indonesia had 25,000 troops located in and around the vicinity of East Timor. Australian generals are not all stupid. They are well aware that 5,000 troops cannot defeat 25,000, supported by back-up forces in other places.

Suspicion against Australia is still strong among certain circles in Indonesia. Recently, an excerpt from a television interview published in the Sydney Morning Herald (November 6) was misinterpreted "I don't know how to give the impression that Australia's foreign minister, Alexander Downer, supported the pro-independence movement in Irian Jaya. As a result, several influential figures in Indonesia, including Speaker of the House of Representatives (DPR) Akbar Tanjung and other members from the DPR, openly rejected Australia's attitude."

If only the first sentence of the Sydney Morning Herald article was read, it could seem ambiguous. However, upon reading the following sentences, the meaning becomes clear. In the interview, Downer
clearly stated that: "The clear position we have is that Irian Jaya should remain part of Indonesia." However, Downer also said that failure to respect human rights would assist the separatist movement: "There has to be a commitment to an appropriate standard of human rights. Otherwise, that'll only encourage the secessionist movement." Nevertheless, due to the misinterpretation, news flared up that Australia's foreign minister supported the separatist movement.

Much of Indonesia's suspicion of Australia arose after East Timor's separation from Indonesia. Some people claim that Australia wants Indonesia to be divided. What proof is there that Australia wants
Indonesia break up? Australia has long provided Indonesia with economic and military assistance. Why would Australia provide such assistance if it wanted Indonesia to be divided?

One reason given for the Australian government allegedly wanting Indonesia to be divided is that Australia is afraid of being invaded by Indonesia. If Australia is truly worried about this so-called "threat from the north," surely Australia's defense budget would be proportionate to this concern. However, Australia's current defense budget is only 1.9 percent of its GNP.

The main threat from Indonesia about which Australian strategists are concerned is not military invasion, but invasion from refugees, in the event that Indonesia's territorial integrity is further divided. As a result of the continuing chaos in Indonesia, there are already approximately 500,000 refugees in Indonesia. If
Indonesia's territorial integrity further disintegrates, this number will increase and many will seek asylum overseas, including in Australia. Therefore Australia, like Indonesia's other neighbors, has an interest in continuing to support Indonesia=92s territorial integrity.
- -- AMC
*) Senior researcher at the Research School of Pacific and Asian
Studies, Australian National University