Stratfor Analysis - 23 March 2002

Indonesian Reform Process Grinding to a Halt

Summary

Recent actions by the Indonesian government and military indicate that reform in the country has come to a standstill. Only stronger condemnation from the international community will change this situation, but foreign governments will continue to turn a blind eye to many of Indonesia's transgressions as long as their own interests remain secure.

Analysis

An Indonesian court March 20 acquitted three militiamen for the murder of a U.N. peacekeeper from New Zealand. The decision cast a shadow over Jakarta's claims that it will pursue justice for atrocities committed during the 1999 independence referendum in East Timor. The ruling is the latest incident to show that, despite expectations when Megawati Sukarnoputri became president
last year, the government and military are abandoning true reform.

The international community, including the United States and Indonesia's Southeast Asian neighbors, has repeatedly called for an end to corruption in the country. However, these players put their own interests in the economic and strategically important country ahead of real reform. As a result the anti-corruption campaign in Indonesia will fall by the wayside as the military ascends in power -- echoing the era of oppressive former President Suharto.

Indonesia has proven oil reserves of 5 billion barrels and proven natural gas reserves of 92.5 trillion cubic feet, according the U.S. Department of Energy. Many important trade routes run along Indonesia's coast, linking the Pacific and Indian oceans.

With a population that is 90 percent Muslim, the country is on Washington's list of top priorities in its war against terrorism because of the threat of extremists operating or seeking sanctuary in Indonesia. In the end foreign governments with a stake in Indonesia care more about whether the country is stable than how, and by what means, that stability is achieved. And the list of signs that reform is slowing grows daily.

Indonesian courts on March 13 convicted Central Bank governor Sjahril Sabirin of corruption, sentencing him to three years in prison and fining him almost $1,500. But while free on bail, the governor maintains his job and collects full salary.

Jakarta last week refused to renew the visa of Lindsay Murdoch, an Australia journalist for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald who has reported on human rights issues in the country, including alleged atrocities by the Indonesian military in Aceh, Laksamana.net reported. This throwback to the control of information under Suharto has caused great concern in Australia
and among journalists in Indonesia.

The General Election Commission announced March 18 that the next elections, scheduled for 2004, would likely be delayed. The parliament, according to the commission, has failed to pass the necessary bills to speed election reform and establish a fair election process in time for the next polls.

The commission hopes to set up the direct election of the president. This would replace the current system that calls for voters to elect parliamentary members who then vote for the president. However, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, coordinating minister for political and security affairs, assured journalists March 20 that elections would take place on time.

The parliament has also delayed the establishment of a committee to investigate House Speaker Akbar Tanjung's involvement in a $4 million embezzlement scandal. The delay does not bode well for the government's alleged crackdown on corruption. And although Suharto's youngest son Tommy is on trial for planning the murder of a Supreme Court justice and possession of illegal arms, it does not appear that prosecutors are truly attempting to obtain a guilty verdict. The indictment is only 29 pages, lacks details, does not explain his motive and does not say how or why Tommy obtained the weapons, the Jakarta Post reported. 

The armed forces have also demonstrated an unwillingness to ensure justice in Indonesia. Leaders in the military March 19 showed their support for soldiers on trial for crimes against humanity committed in East Timor. The military has consistently refused to send certain members, including former armed forces chief Wiranto, to face trial for such violations. Current armed forces
chief Adm. Widodo claimed the defendants were carrying out their duties when the crimes were committed, reports the Jakarta Post.

Megawati has a precarious hold on power, maintained by the support of the military, and will not fully support a true end to corruption within the government and military because it could very well pose a serious threat to her political support. The president has not even recommended a replacement for Widodo despite a promise made in November that she would. However, while pro-reform officials would prefer a younger leader of the military, with more concern for human rights, the top candidates are all holdovers from the Suharto regime.

Even these recent incidents are not affecting foreign support for the country. For instance, U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia Ralph L. Boyce March 18 extolled the government's efforts to protect investors in the country. Boyce also said in February that Megawati understood the enormity of tackling terrorism within Indonesia's borders. Meanwhile FBI Director Robert Mueller has also visited the country to discuss anti-terrorism cooperation, Antara news agency reported March 15.

Australian Defense Minister Robert Hill said March 6 that Jakarta and Canberra would gradually restore defense ties after their suspension following the 1999 violence in East Timor. Restoring ties would include joint military exercises, which would provide the Indonesian military with training and equipment.

In an effort to appease its neighbors to the north, Indonesia is talking with Malaysia and the Philippines about setting up a trilateral border patrol that would work to combat piracy, smuggling, illegal drugs and arms shipments, the Philippine Star reported. In February, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur and Manila signed an agreement allowing them to "pursue suspected terrorists across land and sea borders for crimes committed on each other's territory," Agence

France-Presse reported.

The Bush administration also wishes to deploy U.S. forces in Indonesia to assess the presence of al Qaeda in the country, USA Today reported. While Jakarta would likely strongly object to such a request, joint military exercises with the United States could very well occur in the ot-too-distant futuX-Mozilla-Status: 0009overnments take a stronger stance, reform in Indonesia will continue to be a pipe dream. International players will stifle their objections to human rights violations and corruption as long as Indonesia keeps its internal situation stable and investments and trade routes remain secure. For its part Indonesia will ensure the stability of its regime even if that means committing human rights violations as it quashes separatist movements.